Taiwan’s first female President Tsai Ing-wen is a thorn in mainland China’s side and this may have worked to her advantage ahead of Saturday’s general election.
When the island became the first Asian society to legalise gay marriage last year, Ms Tsai made global headlines, but was also criticised for going against majority public opinion in Taiwan.
Earlier, she faced accusations of nearly causing an electricity shortage with her promotion of green energy. When she tried to give all workers two days off a week, she found herself accused of hurting rather than increasing worker earnings and holiday.
Low wages and controversial pension reform also pulled down her approval ratings to as low as 15% late last year. She even had to battle a former subordinate for her party’s nomination.
But her biggest headache has been China – it has turned up the pressure on her because she and her party do not accept that Taiwan can be part of one China.
Last year Beijing snatched seven of Taiwan’s already sparse collection of diplomatic allies – only a handful of countries recognise self-governing Taiwan as a sovereign nation. China also displayed its muscle by flying fighter jets and sailing aircraft carriers in Taiwan’s vicinity, and banned much-needed Chinese tourists from visiting the island.
Despite all this, as she stands for a second term, she has a good chance of winning.
The China question
The youngest of 11 children – her mother being the last of her father’s four wives – Ms Tsai has proven herself to be a shrewd politician and a lot of this has been in her strategising on the sovereignty question that has dogged Taiwanese politics and identity.
Beijing sees the island and mainland China as a part of one country that must be unified one day. President Tsai insists Taiwan’s future should be decided by its 23 million people.
When Chinese President Xi Jinping made a speech in January 2019 on the 40th anniversary of China’s 1979 letter to Taiwan seeking to repair relations, she took the opportunity to drive home her point that Beijing is a threat to the island.
On the face of it, Mr Xi’s speech was a reaffirmation of Beijing’s goal of peaceful reunification under the One Country Two Systems principle.
This is the system under which Hong Kong has been governed since it was handed back to China in 1997 – in Hong Kong this meant that for 50 years a degree of autonomy and certain freedoms and privileges not seen in mainland China would remain protected.
But Ms Tsai used his speech as a chance to firmly reject an understanding called “The 1992 consensus”.
This is the only agreement which – precisely because of its vagueness – has enabled both sides to glide over differences when it comes to Taiwan’s sovereignty by agreeing that they are part of One China – and allowing space for each side to interpret that “One China” as they wish.
Taiwan’s former ruling party defined it as the Republic of China, which is the island’s official name. Ms Tsai insists, though, the phrase will only end up meaning whatever China wants it to.
But perhaps the most significant boost for President Tsai came from outside, in the months-long anti-China protests in Hong Kong, which she frequently used to emphasise the failure of One Country Two Systems.
It is significant because the principle has been floated as a model for eventual reunification with Taiwan.
