Crashing out of the EU would impact UK politics, the economy, security and millions of British and European migrants.
Fears that the UK will leave the European Union without a Brexit deal are back at the top of the agenda as the clocks tick towards a new deadline on April 12 – just days from now.
Yet despite the potential for considerable disruption, British people are being told by their government to keep calm and carry on – because contingency plans are well advanced.
Alongside the stockpiling of food and medicines, use of motorways as lorry parks, and emergency planning by local councils, military chiefs have also been ordered to keep 3,500 troops on standby.
There are even undisclosed plans to declare martial law.
In the world’s oldest democracy, Brexiters present this as an effort to wrest democratic control from Europe.
Cynics are not convinced, pointing to secret cabinet documents about no-deal planning – codenamed Operation Yellowhammer – that were uncovered by journalists and paint a more chaotic picture.
These warn of a “critical three-month phase” after leaving the EU and “unforeseen issues and impacts” during which even the best made plans could be overwhelmed.
In a divided Britain, the prospect of “no deal” evokes both fear and enthusiasm – but how would it affect the country?
Brexit has already put the UK’s political system under strain, opening deep divisions in the two main parties, Conservative and Labour, which a no-deal scenario could bring to a head.
Experts say Brexit has also damaged perceptions of politicians, routinely ridiculed in the popular press for their failure to agree a reasonable solution.
Observers believe Brexit has empowered the far right, with long-term implications for Britain’s democracy, while also intensifying calls for political reform – especially modernisation of the old-fashioned voting system.
A no-deal Brexit could also have damaging implications for Europe itself, further straining relations with the UK’s neighbours, harming key economic partners, and potentially exacerbating populist pressures.
A no-deal Brexit would mean that there would be no “transition period” to ease the UK out of the bloc and all EU regulations would instantly cease to apply – causing disruption that some economists say could shave at least 2 percent off GDP by the end of 2020.
The UK government would not have to pay an annual £13bn ($17bn) to the EU budget, but would also lose key subsidies such as the £3bn ($3.9bn) for farmers under the Common Agricultural Policy.
Overnight, Britain would lose the benefits of the EU’s 70 international trade deals, reverting instead to World Trade Organization (WTO) rules governing how it deals with imports and exports.
EU tariffs, VAT and a ban on food of animal origin would confront UK exporters with the same obstacles to trade as those facing other non-EU countries.
The prices of some imports, especially fresh vegetables and fruit, could soar by up to 10 percent in British shops and a likely fall in the value of the pound would further fuel inflation.
New import controls at borders could disrupt freight traffic as lorries going to and from the EU complete customs declarations, causing bottlenecks on motorways in southern England.
