The ‘Big Six’ of the Premier League – Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Manchester City, Manchester United and Tottenham – have claimed the top six as their own for the past three seasons.
But with some of those sides facing problems and the clubs below them looking threatening, could their dominance come to an end in 2019-20?
Manchester City and Liverpool are expected to remain a cut above the rest, but which clubs have a realistic chance of breaking the established order at the top of the Premier League, which ones are vulnerable – and why?
The club that not only broke the Big Six but smashed it to smithereensthree years ago, Leicester have arguably the most exciting young squad in the Premier League.
Eight of Brendan Rodgers’ first XI since he took charge are aged 26 or younger and are yet to reach their peak, including midfielder Youri Tielemans, who joined for a record £40m fee this summer. Ayoze Perez, Newcastle’s top scorer last season who joined the Foxes for £30m, turned 26
last week.
While there’s no guarantee that such potential will be realised, it shows how promising this group of players is that the Champions League clubs look so enviously at them, with Ben Chilwell, Harry Maguire, Wilfred Ndidi and James Maddison all linked with moves to clubs above them this
summer.
In the 10 games following Rodgers’ appointment, Leicester took more points and had a better expected goal difference – the goals they were expected to score given their chances, minus those they were expected to concede – than Manchester United, Tottenham and Arsenal, emphasising
their top-six credentials.
After finishing seventh last season, it would be fair to think that for Wolves to finish any higher, they need to start taking points off the Big Six themselves.
But Wolves were actually very successful against the teams above them in 2018-19, with only Manchester City and Liverpool having a better record. It is their record against the teams below them that they need to improve to challenge for the top six.
Wolves were the Robin Hood of the Premier League last season, taking points off the rich and giving points to the poor. If they can maintain their success against the big sides and learn how to bully the others, then a place in the top six could be within reach.
However, one thing that could hinder an assault on the top of the table is a long run in Europe. In the past 10 seasons, the only non-Big Six side to qualify for Europe through the league and finish higher the following season was Southampton in 2015-16, whose European campaign ended in
August.
After a generally underwhelming campaign up to that point, the final eight games of last season saw Everton beat Chelsea, Arsenal and Manchester United and take more points than any side outside the top two.
And as the chart below shows, their impressive results weren’t down to enjoying the rub of the green but to an overall improvement in their performances, with their expected goals difference improving alongside their actual one.
As a result, it’s not surprising that Marco Silva decided to turn midfielder Andre Gomes’ loan into a permanent deal, although he has not been able to do the same with centre-back Kurt Zouma. Idrissa Gueye’s move to Paris St-Germain also leaves big boots to fill in midfield, despite the
club’s signing of Fabian Delph.
Has Silva finally got his team playing the way he wants? With a small number of games, it’s hard to say, but if Everton can carry their late-season form into this one, then an exciting season could be on the cards.
