Theresa May is heading to Brussels for an EU summit, the morning after surviving a vote of confidence. The prime minister is seeking legally binding pledges from EU leaders on the “backstop” – the plan to avoid a return to a manned Northern Ireland border. Critics say the plan will keep the UK tied to EU rules indefinitely and curb its ability to strike trade deals.
The EU says it will not renegotiate the backstop but may agree to greater assurances on its temporary nature. It seems unlikely that would win over enough support for her Brexit plan to have a realistic chance of getting through the House of Commons, with tensions heightened in the Conservative Party in the wake of Wednesday evening’s vote.
Theresa May did win the ballot of Conservative MPs, on whether she should remain their party leader, by 200 votes to 117. But in a last-minute pre-vote move, she offered a promise to her MPs that she would step down before the next election.
BBC political editor Laura Kuenssberg said that sort of move tends to lead to power “draining away”, adding that the party’s “rival tribes might be now set on a course to pull her – and themselves – apart” with the expectation that at “some point she will have to change tack on Brexit”. Speaking in Downing Street after the vote, Mrs May vowed to deliver the Brexit “people voted for” but said she had heard the concerns of MPs who voted against her.
But Liberal Democrat leader Sir Vince Cable said, despite the “high drama” of Wednesday, “nothing has really changed”. Former Tory leader Iain Duncan Smith said it was now up to Mrs May to listen to her party and “push the EU… to resolve the backstop”.
Earlier this week, the prime minister travelled to meet EU leaders, including German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte, to raise the issues surrounding the withdrawal agreement at Westminster one-on-one. But a trip to meet the Irish Taoiseach Leo Varadkar had to be cancelled because of the leadership vote. At Thursday’s summit, Mrs May will have an opportunity to spell out face-to-face the problems to leaders of all the other 27 member states. The EU leaders will then consider what could be done – without Mrs May in the room.
One cabinet minister last night told me the whole challenge to her had been “futile”, suggesting it hadn’t really changed much. But it really has. Theresa May has a temporary shield from another direct call for her departure from her own MPs . Angry Brexiteers can’t try to move her out for another year in the same way.
