Formula 1 is back. A breakneck run of nine races in 14 weeks, dotted all around the globe, starts at this weekend’s Belgian Grand Prix and takes the season to its conclusion in Abu Dhabi on 1 December.
In that time there is a lot to sort out – some scores to settle, recoveries consolidated and under-achievement to be rectified, the line-up of next year’s grid to distil, the future of the sport to be secured and, of course, a championship to be won.
So what can people expect starting at Spa this weekend?
It is a ‘when’, not an ‘if’, that Lewis Hamilton will win a sixth world title this year, assuming no unforeseen circumstances such as injury or illness. The 34-year-old heads to the Belgian Grand Prix with a 62-point lead over Mercedes team-mate Valtteri Bottas with only 234 still available.
Mathematically, of course, Bottas has a chance to overhaul Hamilton; realistically, he doesn’t have a hope.
The Briton has won eight races this season, the Finn only two. Hamilton won the last race in Hungary with a brilliant comeback drive in which team and superstar driver were in perfect harmony to produce arguably his best win of the year, while Bottas has not won since Azerbaijan in
April.
Hamilton has extended his lead over Bottas by 31 points in the last three races, and in the last two Bottas has been disappointing, crashing out in Germany when he had a chance to make up a big chunk of points on Hamilton, who had his worst race for years, and destroying his race when
he collided with Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc on the first lap in Hungary.
As a result, Bottas is in much more danger of losing second place to Red Bull’s Max Verstappen – who is only seven points behind after a superb run of two wins, and a second place in the last four races – than Hamilton is under threat from Bottas.
When will Hamilton tie it up? If he can make 42 points on Bottas in the next five races in Belgium, Italy, Singapore, Russia and Japan – at 8.4 points on average a race, which seems eminently doable – he will be 104 clear after the Japanese Grand Prix, and that would do it.
Failing that, it’s hard to see how Hamilton won’t be 78 points clear after the following race in Mexico.
This season has been a grave disappointment for Ferrari, who expected to challenge for the title but have been steamrollered by Mercedes and have not yet won a race.
It would be astonishing in some ways if the team ended the year without a victory, but with only nine chances remaining, an unconvincing performance so far, and Red Bull very much on a roll, it is a serious possibility.
Lucky for Ferrari, then, that the next two races present them with arguably their best chances to win for the rest of the season.
The Belgian and Italian Grands Prix are a week apart and both are on classic, high-speed circuits where straight-line speed is key to overall performance. They are, in F1 vernacular, power-sensitive – and Ferrari’s engine has the most power and the best straight-line speed on the grid.
Ferrari start both Spa and Monza weekends as favourites, and the races present a golden opportunity for Sebastian Vettel and Leclerc to finally notch up that long-awaited first win of the year – and in Leclerc’s case, of his career.
If Ferrari can finally grasp an opportunity – rather than let it slip through their fingers, as they have done in every single case one has presented itself this year – which driver will it be?
Vettel is ahead in the championship, but Leclerc has in many ways been more impressive.
The 21-year-old would have won in Bahrain in April had his engine not gone sour in the closing laps. He should have won in Baku had he not crashed in qualifying when looking a certainty for pole. He led all but the last two laps in Austria before being passed by Verstappen. And he has
out-qualified Vettel for the last five races.
But Leclerc is still raw and inexperienced, and there are weaknesses in his game. He makes too many mistakes and, with a more aggressive driving style than Vettel, he has still not fully got on top of managing the Pirelli tyres.
And Vettel has a point to prove. The four-time champion is fighting for his seniority in the team in the face of a very stern challenge from Leclerc. He should have had his own win, which he lost to a driving error and subsequent controversial penalty in Canada in June, and his guile and
experience could give him the edge in the end.
What if they don’t win this year? Well, traditionally, that has led to blood-letting in Maranello. All bets would be off.
The third team in the top three, Red Bull, have a new line-up for the final races of the season. Pierre Gasly has been demoted to the junior Toro Rosso team, and Anglo-Thai Alexander Albon promoted to replace him.
Albon has been quietly impressive in his rookie season – matching his vastly more experienced team-mate Daniil Kvyat for pace and putting in a couple of outstanding performances, especially in the wet in Germany, which have convinced Red Bull he should be the one to replace Gasly.
It is a stunning opportunity for Albon, who described the move as “surreal”, adding: “It’s a big jump into the deep end, but I’ve got my swimming shorts on.”
