We’ve all watched and wondered. We’ve all felt hard done by. We’ve all cursed the sliver of fortune and happenstance that turns victory into defeat.
That’s what prompted ESPN and the team led by Dr. Thomas Curran, at the London School of Economics, to compile the Luck Index, which returns for a second season.
The 2018 version found that luck had a profound effect on the top of the table. It gave Liverpool, the unluckiest side, an additional 12 points, which would have catapulted them from fourth to second.
It also found that the gods were harsh on Arsene Wenger’s final Arsenal side, who lost eight points due to misfortune, while being very kind to Jose Mourinho’s Manchester United, gifting them six
points: take them away and rather than finishing second, they would have been fourth.
We know that luck does not necessarily even out; not over a season, not over several seasons, probably not even over a lifetime. (Just ask Forrest Gump.) But as a predictor of trends for the following
campaign, the Luck Index didn’t do too badly.
Liverpool ended up as runner-up to Manchester City, pushing them hard all season and winning the Champions League and, according to the Luck Index, it was fully deserved. United crumbled,
changed managers mid-stream and finished sixth despite being one of the luckier teams in the league once again. Arsenal, under Unai Emery, were one point off the top four — actually, right where
they should have been — and reached the Europa League final.
Manchester City were unlucky this year and lucky the year before, suggesting that the 2018-19 version should have gained 101 points (misfortune cost them three points) and finished four points
clear of Liverpool, while the centurions from 2017-18 were actually fortunate and gained an extra three points.
Ole Gunnar Solskjaer got a lot of credit — and a full-time job — for rescuing United from the disaster that was the first four months of Jose Mourinho’s third season but when you break down the
numbers, they were fortunate to finish sixth. Both managers at Old Trafford had good fortune in 2018-19 but when you break down the myriad injustices suffered by Everton, who were the unluckiest
team in the Premier League last year according to the Luck Index, United should have finished seventh and out of the European places, with Everton finishing sixth on 62 points, ahead of United on
goal difference. It’s no wonder both teams have been busy making signings this summer.
